What Will Happen to the Trucking Industry if the Freight Recession Continues?

By, Jeff Swenson 

Founder & CEO of LineHaul Station

What do you think will happen to the trucking industry if the freight recession continues for another 3 years?

While that may seem totally implausible to many trucking veterans given the historical length of freight downturns of the past, there doesn't appear to be any clear signs of recovery at this point. And, other economic indicators are sounding off alarms.

No one, including me, wants to be the pessimist. But, I think this question can stimulate a healthy and responsible discussion given the current reality. Here are just a few reasons why I think we need to remain cautious.

We all know tariffs have significantly slowed import freight, and the jury is out on when that could change. Trump is clearly on a mission to shuffle the deck on foreign trade.

Reshoring U.S. manufacturing is also a big push for the current administration, but it's going to take time to ramp up projects, build the labor force, and consumer costs will very likely be higher than sourcing from China and other regions of the world.

New residential construction starts remain low, and recently home foreclosure action has increased almost 20% year-over-year due to higher interest rates, rising property taxes, utilities and insurance costs, along with an increase in loss of employment. It may not be a repeat of 2008,but could still have ominous consequences for the broader economy.

Consumer confidence has declined by 30% over the last year, with the Index of Consumer Sentiment dropping from 71.8 a year ago to 50.3 in November 2025.Even the tech fueled stock market now seems to be revealing cracks in the foundation.

Piling on top of the problem is the surplus trucking capacity driving down rates, judicial interference to the DOT purging non-domiciled carriers, and shippers that continue to apply pressure on the market.

These are all tough pills to swallow, and while I don't claim to be a trained economist, I've been through enough market resets over the last 45 years, and these indicators sure seem to feel like economic red flags that potentially point to a longer and more turbulent recovery. An extended recovery could be devastating for a lot of trucking companies, and I'm raising the discussion to plant a seed of innovation.

I've met a lot of incredibly smart and talented leaders in the trucking industry and believe there is some great potential in working together to help mitigate the damage. So... I'd like to spur a think-tank with the most experienced thought leaders and propose a BOLD solution to be driven by large carriers which has the potential of being very disruptive.

And so here it goes...What if the power-only component of trucking could be commoditized through a universal freight relay network?

Most carriers already outsource to third-party, power-only owner-operators and this solution could be similar, but much more efficient. The problem with the current outsourcing model is that it does nothing to improve asset utilization. As many carriers indicate, trucks are still only rolling an average of 7 hours or less per day. This system is infected by detention & dwell, deadhead, lane imbalance, hours-of-service restrictions, traffic congestion, lack of safe parking and a myriad of other issues.

However, if physical hub & spoke terminal infrastructure was built and a freight relay system was enabled, it could measurably increase asset utilization to 3-4 times current levels. It would also deliver freight much faster and make the job for truck drivers significantly more appealing. The network would be designed for the highest density freight lanes across the country. Participating carriers could plug their loaded trailers into the network across the system.

The power-only solution would haul a “Carrier A” trailer one direction, and return with a “Carrier B” trailer – creating a much stronger lane balance. Trucks could run 500-600 miles twice a day to a transfer hub with all drivers in the network returning home every single night. The transfer hub would also eliminate any need for a live hand-off of trailers. Many industry veterans agree that this solution could reduce current costs by roughly 20% through amortizing fixed costs over significantly more miles per truck. The potential decrease would have a substantial impact on survivability for a lot of carriers and set the table for stronger long-term profitability.

The elusive question is... “How to get it Launched?” because it's a capital heavy play if starting from scratch. One possible path is to create a common carrier co-op that operates independently but co-owned by the carriers that use it. Think of this structure in similar terms to how companies participate with Insurance Captives. The participating carriers could contribute financially by providing capital or existing trucks.

Carriers remain competitive through the size of their trailer pools, customer service, technology and other proprietary tools, while the collective power-only solution would be the vehicle to skyrocket asset utilization.

We've already begun working on a program to build the national network of flex-space truck terminals that will serve the truckload industry with a larger geographic footprint and a lower cost than independent real estate ownership.

We believe the infrastructure we've planned will be a pivotal key to enabling a coast-to-coast freight relay system accessible to all carriers, brokers, private fleets and shippers that want to participate. Our mission is to collaborate with the best companies in the industry and solve a problem that can not only be tremendously disruptive, but also have lasting effects to creating greater efficiency and better profit margins for all industry stakeholders.

I encourage you to share this video with your ENTIRE leadership team and if you're game... let's kick-start the brainstorming. I've already introduced the idea to several well-respected, for-hire carrier and private fleet CEOs that have expressed optimism around the concept.

This is clearly a BIG VISION, and it will take some top-notch leaders and companies to get it done. But I believe there is a strong base of experts that love the challenge of moving mountains. We hope you are part of that group, and that you'll join us to help make it a reality. Please call me if you'd like to talk further. I welcome the opportunity to hear your thoughts. My contact information is listed here, or you can connect with me on LinkedIn.

Thanks for taking the time to listen.

IT’S TIME FOR CHANGE!

js@linehaulstation.com

phone: 602.898.8000

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